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HD DVD: A Demise Greatly Exaggerated?
HD DVD is dead. Or so says the media. How about waiting for consumers to make the final decision?
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January 21, 2008 | by Cindy Davis

I have been quietly watching the press, including those from my own group, talk about the seemingly final round of the Blu-ray and HD DVD format war. Having attended the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) along with the myriad press conferences and now seeing everyone (including electronichouse.com) jump on the bandwagon, I have to share my opinion as well.

Go ahead call me a Pollyanna, but I thought the idea behind the format war was to let the consumer choose—right? Yes, I do think it would have been better to have had both sides in the beginning deliver the one and best format. Yeah, right. So that didn’t happen and they left it to the consumer to choose the winner in the end. Yeah, right. This is politics and money at its best.

Because I am in the industry, I will own both HD DVD and Blu-ray players. I am too close to the subject to know if I would have put down the money for both if I didn’t need to do so. Given that I pay monthly for three HD-DVRs, I probably would have. For better or worse, I have also gotten close to the people behind the development of the products for both formats. They are all really good people.

I wince when I see writers (including those from my own group) doing a dance over HD DVD when the war hasn’t been decided yet. Yes, it makes for a good story. Don’t get me wrong, I am not apologizing for them. They have a job to do and I am respectful of their opinions.

The Toshiba press conference at CES was a tough one to get through. I respect Jodi Sally, Toshiba’s V.P. of marketing for the digital A/V group, for not spinning the news that Warner had dumped the HD DVD format in favor of Blu-ray. She appeared devastated. Jodi started by saying “As you can imagine, this is a tough day for me. I have had better.” Good for her for admitting that. She and her team have worked really hard on this and will continue to support the format with products.

During CES I got together with many other people I have come to know well on the Blu-ray side of the fence as well. Understandably, their joy was hard to contain.



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Comments (91) Most recent displayed first.
Posted by Jeff Kalman  on  01/28/08  at  12:51 PM

“As far as simplest upgrading, cost and convenience goes, HD DVD has the edge.”

As far as layer per layer space, Blu-Ray has much more storage potential.  It takes two layers of Blu-Ray to get 50 GBs storage capacity, while with HD-DVD it takes three layers to get 51 GBs.  Blu-Ray might cost more to implement, but it is a better technology beyond the actual video format.  So of course it costs more to implement…  The old technology isn’t capable of that much capacity because it uses the same laser technology as DVD.

This is all ridiculous to argue anyway at this point IMO, seeing as plants have already been made and converted to Blu-Ray.  The “costs less” argument is like crying over spilled milk.  By the time we need massive amounts of Blu-Ray discs, the costs of converting manufacturing plants will have decreased by a lot.

Posted by Dimitri  on  01/28/08  at  11:44 AM

Why do blu ray ‘supporters’ immediately pounce on and get so worked up about all the latest selective statistics? There are many factors at play here but in the long run it all comes down to money. For instance Warners is just cashing in on the very few who have dipped into full HD and have a ps3 - it has nothing to do with quality difference, because as far as image goes, there is bugger all! As far as simplest upgrading, cost and convenience goes, HD DVD has the edge. So take it is guys, this show will run and run.
Besides, does eggs, counting, hatch, betamax ring a bell?

Posted by Jeff Kalman  on  01/26/08  at  05:25 PM

Here is more proof IMO that the HD-DVD demise is not exaggerated:

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/index.cfm

Looking at the sales trends, it looks like HD-DVD video was only ahead for brief spans of time, with Blu-Ray video devouring it in sales overall.  My prognosis, that a collective of individuals were targeting certain brief time frames to make a lot of purchases to intentionally boost the HD-DVD video sales numbers.  There is no statistical evidence of any long-term growth in those HD-DVD video statistics.  Worst of all, they targeted the sales statistics during key moments where they felt it would garner perceptual weight among consumers.  Such as, periods of time when additional sales and deals were occurring so as to make it look like those deals were turning the tide.

It has been over for awhile, but people intentionally pulling those kinds of circus antics have been prolonging the illusion that HD-DVD still had a chance.  Like I said before, I blame those people, the ones who egged it on by pulling such antics, for being part of the problem.  I remember specific threads posted online where people were setting up these targeted buying dates to pump up the sales statistics.  This should have been over a lot sooner, but instead consumers who bought into only HD-DVD or both formats are going to end up losing money because of all this garbage.

Posted by Jimmysb  on  01/26/08  at  04:47 PM

I am going to wait until there are blue ray players and content that does the same things that HD DVD does now.  Like ethernet connectivity, onboard storage etc. 

In other words I am waiting for a blue ray 2.0 standalone player under $200.  When are those going to be available?  Over a year from now?  It is going to be a while before I get any HD player.  I would hate to buy a player and not be able to use the features that future disks will have.  What sense does this make?

HD DVD needs to come out slugging and explain to the public that Blu Ray isn’t even finished.  Do you know ther is a class action suit against samsung for promising a dual format player that has profile 1.1 but only delivered audio at profile 1.0 specs.

What is the rest of the public going to do when they relized their blue ray player does not have all the features others will have in the future.

So I am waiting until blue ray if finished.

Posted by north  on  01/26/08  at  03:14 PM

“then I bet I would have caved. BECAUSE I am in the industry, I have to be familiar with both”

Cindy, I agree that you had to buy both because of your work - there may be little way around that, however, if you look at the other posts here - and unless all of them also work in the industry - they’ve been buying both as well.

Where does it end? Saying that you will buy both doesn’t help any even if because of work. It just adds to the she/he does so will I mentality. Plus, with how low hd-dvd has dropped the prices, etc. It has been very easy to go and buy both. So on so forth.

To quote the Digital Bits… “And of those few consumers who WERE actually buying high-def players and discs - the early adopters - most of them weren’t deciding either! They were buying both.” - 1-25-08 my two cents

There really has been little choice made and it needs to end now.

Thanks btw for the reply earlier and hope the criticism wasn’t/isn’t taken too hard, however, your reply has not changed my opinion. I agree w/the digital bits not ElectonicHouse. Read what they wrote on 1-25-08 if you haven’t already.


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