The Blu-ray crystal ball (or is it the magic eight ball?) is at it again. This time, the prediction for big Blu comes from Entertainment Merchants Association, whose 2008 Annual Report on the Home Entertainment Industry includes a forecast that Blu-ray Disc sales will surpass DVD sales in 2012.

The report found that sales of nearly 9 million high-definition discs in 2007 generated more than $260 million in consumer spending. The EMA believes in 2012, Blu-ray Disc sales will be around $9.5 billion. Cha-ching!

That’s faith in a hefty amount more Blu-ray content coming out. Even with a decline from a peak of nearly 14,000 in 2005, standard DVD releases totaled 12,177 last year, according to the report. Even with 10 new releases a week would give Blu-ray only 5,200 a year—and while there are weeks like this one where 10 are being released, there are also others like last one that gave us only four new titles, according to Blu-ray.com listings.

If EMA is basing its forecasts on an estimated price drop in hardware and software, as happened with standard DVD, then perhaps this one could be on target. But standard DVD didn’t have to compete with things like Netflix or Apple TV as it grew.

Via: Engadget HD

Arlen Schweiger - Managing editor of Electronic House Magazine

Arlen contributes product news items to electronichouse.com along with his role on the print publication. Got a tip? Send it along!