Blu-ray—more sales than DVD in 2012?
The Blu-ray crystal ball (or is it the magic eight ball?) is at it again. This time, the prediction for big Blu comes from Entertainment Merchants Association, whose 2008 Annual Report on the Home Entertainment Industry includes a forecast that Blu-ray Disc sales will surpass DVD sales in 2012.
The report found that sales of nearly 9 million high-definition discs in 2007 generated more than $260 million in consumer spending. The EMA believes in 2012, Blu-ray Disc sales will be around $9.5 billion. Cha-ching!
That’s faith in a hefty amount more Blu-ray content coming out. Even with a decline from a peak of nearly 14,000 in 2005, standard DVD releases totaled 12,177 last year, according to the report. Even with 10 new releases a week would give Blu-ray only 5,200 a year—and while there are weeks like this one where 10 are being released, there are also others like last one that gave us only four new titles, according to Blu-ray.com listings.
If EMA is basing its forecasts on an estimated price drop in hardware and software, as happened with standard DVD, then perhaps this one could be on target. But standard DVD didn’t have to compete with things like Netflix or Apple TV as it grew.
Via: Engadget HD

I said it before and I’ll say it again, “Price does matter!” I paid $300 for my PS2 when it first came out (back then a Panasonic or Sony DVD player were going for $250). I’ll buy a blu-ray when the PS3 is $199. Blu-ray is cool right now if you have money to burn; but for the rest of us, we’ll keep watching for price (value).
Some of you people are out of your minds. Mike, My Playstation 3 does more than any HD-DVD player ever did…get over it. Go ahead and lose interest in HD media. That “I didn’t get my way so I’m just not going to play at all” thing serves no purpose. You and those who want HD media to enrich our lives both lose.
As long as ignorant people continue to say that upscaled DVD looks as good as Blu-ray, prices will remain high so you’re shooting yourselves and the rest of us in the foot with comments like “...the leap from (very cheap) DVD to (very expensive) Blu-ray high def is much less obvious (especially if you count upscaled DVD…” PUHLEASE stop the FUD!
Upscaled DVD doesn’t hold a match to 1080p Blu-ray, period. Unless you have eye trouble or are just trying to mislead people for some agenda, you’re not likely to think they are equivalent.
Think Blu-ray players are expensive? Anyone want to buy one of the three Laserdisc players I have? I paid $900 for one of them. How about my $1200 S-VHS deck? Any takers? I thought not. $300 for a 1080p media player is a steal. Stop whining and start enjoying full HD or get out of the way.
They’re just playing guessing games again.
The key here is that DVD generates less revenue for the movie & CE industry because noone in their right mind pays top dollar for any release.
Blu-ray on the otherhand is a niche product (it is far too reliant on a game console) selling at a far higher margin (the now incresingly rare sales promotion excepted).
Blu-ray is little more than a cynical ploy to get the movie & consumer electronics corps back to the level of margin they once had when DVD replaced VHS and to take power away from the consumer (this is not some nutty conspiracy theory, it’s true, for proof go read about the BD+ security they are introducing & the ‘End User Licencing Agreement…...which I bet you didn’t know you made when you bought the disc).
Unfortunately for them not everyone is so obsessed with tech.
People know that while the jump from VHS to DVD was very clear and large the leap from (very cheap) DVD to (very expensive) Blu-ray high def is much less obvious (especially if you count upscaled DVD) on the size of HD TV the bulk of us that have then use (32” - 50”).
The other really big problem Blu-ray have is that too many people simply do not think the difference Blu-ray offers on their 32” - 50” HD TV is worth the relatively enormous additional cost.
Not many people want to go to the other (enormous) expense for the necessary audio kit to make use of the other supposedly great feature it offers either.
Despite what the geeks and enthusiasts would have us believe not everyone really wants a mini-cinema in their living room.
Blu-ray offers great improvements over SD-DV - beter sound, beter picture, resolution AND color fidelity. Of course, some people do not care about these things, but I think many do.
I now have a no video rule on my computer, after paying an $85 surcharge on my bill.
HD Internet downloads will never happen in large numbers, especially now that bandwidth is getting expensive. It must stay expensive, as this will help prevent piracy. Stupid claims that studios must learn to “adopt a new business model” do not hold up against evidence that “new business” types, like i-Tunes, do not generate money of any significance, and in fact only canibalize DVD/CD sales, and that free downloading is not a business, any more than shoplifting is a new business type that retailers should embrace, and “stop trying to fight”.
Also, your favotite movies took over a year to write, over a year to cast, thousands of hours to edit. No one’s favorite movie that changed their life is a youtube amateur clip of a singing cat. Even if you are a communist, and think everyone should make minimum wage, the sheer number of hours of hard work that are required to attain a high level of perfection means movies will always be expensive to make, if they are to be any good.
Besides, Blu-rays can be gifted - how do you wrap a download?
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Price Man,
You took the words right out of my mouth. I said I’d buy a BR player once it reaches $125 and that includes tax.
“Blu-ray will overtake DVD when the price of a BD player is $99 and the movies are selling for $9; then people will have a reason to upgrade. My first BD player will be a PS3 priced at $199 (Brand new at Wal-Mart or another electronics store). Price does matter (that’s why the buses and trains are full now). “
I discs would have to cost $10 but at this point I really don’t even like paying $10 for DVDs unless it’s a box set and I’m using a birthday or xmas gift card. Price determines whether I buy a BR player and BR discs. Until then, it’s dvd for me!