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Blu-ray—more sales than DVD in 2012?
The Blu-ray crystal ball (or is it the magic eight ball?) is at it again. This time, the prediction for big Blu comes from Entertainment Merchants Association, whose 2008 Annual Report on the Home Entertainment Industry includes a forecast that Blu-ray Disc sales will surpass DVD sales in 2012.
The report found that sales of nearly 9 million high-definition discs in 2007 generated more than $260 million in consumer spending. The EMA believes in 2012, Blu-ray Disc sales will be around $9.5 billion. Cha-ching!
That’s faith in a hefty amount more Blu-ray content coming out. Even with a decline from a peak of nearly 14,000 in 2005, standard DVD releases totaled 12,177 last year, according to the report. Even with 10 new releases a week would give Blu-ray only 5,200 a year—and while there are weeks like this one where 10 are being released, there are also others like last one that gave us only four new titles, according to Blu-ray.com listings.
If EMA is basing its forecasts on an estimated price drop in hardware and software, as happened with standard DVD, then perhaps this one could be on target. But standard DVD didn’t have to compete with things like Netflix or Apple TV as it grew.
Via: Engadget HD
It’ll be a niche as long as the MSRP of the disc is the same as LDs were…$39.95.
People are tired of double dipping. Stop releasing on DVD and then 6 months down the line, release it on BD!
BD will always cost more than DVD to make. It’s a whole different process not mentioning the AACS copy protection costs. The industry is always looking for new ways to sell their content to the same market again and again (VHS, DVD, BD, etc.) But the reality now is that the market wants entertainment content with ease and convenience and portability. Quality be damned, i.e., MP3 has become the main public distribution for music, not close to CD quality, let alone high sampling-rate SA and DVD-Audio—both dead formats now. Why does anyone think that the majority people will spend more HD when all they really want is an interesting story to entertain them for a couple of hours wherever they happen to be?
Hmmm… let me see if I get this… ten blu-ray releases a week, 52 weeks in a year, 5200 releases in a year… Nope, it don’t add up. That would be a HUNDRED Blu-Ray releases a week. And that ain’t happenin’, at least not any time soon. Once the studios decide to recode everything in HD, though, that steamroller won’t stop.
Blu-ray will overtake DVD when the price of a BD player is $99 and the movies are selling for $9; then people will have a reason to upgrade. My first BD player will be a PS3 priced at $199 (Brand new at Wal-Mart or another electronics store). Price does matter (that’s why the buses and trains are full now).
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2012 is four years from now. Four years might as well be forty years in the consumer electronics industry. I still think Sony has screwed consumers by contriving an outcome to the HD DVD/Blu-Ray “war”.
I was (and still am) a rabid purchaser of HD DVD’s. Now that Blu-ray is the only supported HD format, however, I find that I am beginning to lose interest in HD media, due to the fact that none of the current Blu-ray hardware matches the capabilities of even the most basic HD DVD players, and costs have not fallen as Blu-ray supporters predicted. I am sure the BDA will eventually get their act together, but by the time they do, will anyone care?