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Blu-ray
U.S. Blu-ray Disc Sales Top 9 Million, 3 Million Already This Year
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March 27, 2008 | by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)
Strong first-week sales of Oscar-winner ‘No Country for Old Men’ helped propel the high-def DVD format over its latest milestone—are you buying too?
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Posted by greg  on  03/28  at  12:52 PM

I don’t think these numbers are that reassuring.

Week 1 for Bee movie the DVD version sold almost 1.5 million! 

So one movie sold half as many copies in one week that BR did all year with all of its movies.  Ouch.

Less than 50% of people have HDTV’s and less than 50% of those have HD hooked up to them. 

Cost isn’t helping either.

Posted by Phil  on  03/28  at  01:27 PM

Why does the price need to drop so quickly?  Blu-Ray is outselling DVD at the same point in it’s lifecycle, and the player cost (inflation adjusted) is lower than it was for DVD players at the same point.

Drop the price of players to quickly and you scare off manufacturers from the market…. which is what happened with HD-DVD.  Right now, there’s lots of reason for manufacturers to enter the market, and competition will gradually bring the price of players down as market demand picks up.

Also, with delcining player price comes decling attach rates…. at this point in the adoption cycle you want to attrack zealots who will help with viral marketing.

There’s a lot more than price to establishing a market, which Toshiba never understood.

Posted by Dave C  on  03/28  at  01:54 PM

People love one time costs versus monthly fees. Perhaps those people that dont have HD sat or cable hooked up to their HDTV’s might be more likely to get a blu ray for some HD @ $400 ($270 for reconditioned samsungs) and movies found @ prices ~ $6 more than its DVD cousin.
Would be interesting to see. I know of 3 people who fit this statistic myself.
Mind you, these people will be let down once they do go with HD over cable or sat.
Can anyone say “macro-break-up”
Anyone who didnt see a bigger public interest once HD-DUD died had their head in the ground (and should keep it there)

Posted by jeff  on  03/28  at  01:56 PM

Concur w/ Greg.

While NCFOM did very well on Blu, what are the DVD numbers? Oscar hype also helped that title do so well.

Not trying to rain on any BD fanatic’s parade, but DVD is still gonna be tops, and Blu a pretty niche comparatively, until BD player prices become a biit more realistic. Maybe not Toshiba cheap, but definitely closer to the sub-$200 mark.

Posted by Dave C  on  03/28  at  02:05 PM

DVD will always be around along with blu ray as not everyone has a 40inch TV to notice the diff.Many dont want a big TV.
The only way to end DVD would be by force, like the analog switch off next year. It would be great if this happend and might once the format is another 2 years old or more and players under $100.00.

Obviously, DVD sales will be much higher in line with housholds having older TV’s versus 40inch+ HDTV’s.
So, who cares if they never go past DVD sales. So long as both are always available. Thats all that matters.
Price ALWAYS comes down in time…..

Posted by greg  on  03/28  at  05:11 PM

The home theater atmosphere is so vastly different now than it was 10 years ago.  You can’t compare DVD entrance with BR entrance.  Different circumstances.

Bottom line is that most people don’t see the benefit so they are not willing to part with their hard (less valuable) money for BR.

Keep spinning all you want, but BR will not overtake DVD unless the govt. mandates it.

Posted by james  on  03/28  at  06:35 PM

“Blu-ray reviews have also been very favorable in terms of audio and video transfer”  yeah, i noticed all the good reviews too and ran out and bought it.  i must admit that i am only finding a few that agree with me, but the audio wasn’t anything impressive at all.  i guess the PQ was ok, but there was still nothing visually stunning about it.  its all about hype, and this movie got it from the get go everywhere, even on the forums that are ususally pretty good.  the industry just hyped it so much that we all ate it up.

Posted by RIC  on  03/28  at  08:36 PM

PRICES WILL FALL. IT WILL TAKE 4 TO 5 YEARS BUT THERE WILL BE MORE 1080P SETS THAN NOT. THAT IS WHEN BLURAY WILL OVERTAKE AND EVENTUALLY KILL DVD. DO NOT KID YOURSELF IT WILL HAPPEN. PERCEPTION IS REALITY.

Posted by Jeff  on  03/29  at  11:10 AM

I bet Jeff and Greg were betting on HD DVD too. You guys are wrong. Plain DVD’s will fade away. As well as BR. The next big deal is IP transfer of HD material being stored on media servers. Then the only discs we have are hard drives and such…You need to embrace the new technologies not discount them…

Posted by film11  on  03/29  at  12:10 PM

68,000???  That is pitiful!  Didn’t TRANSFORMERS and even SPIDER-MAN 3 do better than that?!?!  With all the millions of PS3 players being trumpeted as BR sales, 68,000 is considered to be “hurting” DVD sales?  Gimme a break!  The real irony is that, if HD-DVD was still around and the movie was released on both formats, the sales at least would probably have hit 100,000.  And that is still adrop in the bucket.  Nothing to get excited about here. (But it is the most transparent “spin” job I’ve seen in a while.)

Posted by RobRuffo  on  03/29  at  03:36 PM

Maybe you guys have poor qualiy display devices ot very poor eyesight, and/or do not have HDMI sound receivers, but the difference in qualiy between Blu-Ray and regular DVD is huge - and I own an EXCELLENT (latest Oppo) upconverting player.  Still, we really are talking night and day differences.  Not subtle at all.

HD-DVD was no different - there is no difference whatsoever between the two technologies since they both use EXACTLY the same encoding algorythms.  Maybe HD-DVD had more “interactive features” that almost no titles ever made use of, but who cares?  You people really have to get over your HD-DVD disspointment.

Blu-Ray really is amazing, and sells itself to anyoen with adequate eyesight and/or glasses when seen on a properly connected display that doesn’t suck.

Posted by edge  on  03/29  at  04:48 PM

Just ciurous on everyones opinion here? Do you think that the whole idea of Physical Media beieng replace by internet Content will take over before BluRay actully starts to out sell DVD? I know the HD on the internet stlll does not compare but its getting better and Broadband conections are getting faster every year.

Posted by Mikey  on  03/30  at  06:08 PM

Hard drives will not last long either guys.  Solid state has become a dominating force.  We are afraid of movies leaving spinning media? going to flash?  hard drives will also!  For the time being, most internet TV providers are suffering because of their own backbone weakness… Beefing up the transfer is tremendiously expensive and overhead will be draining… along with the people who want to avoid subscriptions and putting their name on lists.  Online media is going to take a while yet, that’s enough time for Blu-Ray to have its fun.

Posted by rip  on  03/31  at  04:22 AM

I agree that Hd downloads will one day beat out the physical media, but not anyday soon. The only people that believe it will are techies that are living a little to far into the technological future compared to the average person. Some day though.

Posted by Joe T.  on  03/31  at  07:51 AM

Edge—I think on-demand streaming/downloads (not necessarily internet) will replace physical media before Blu Ray can overtake DVD. 

My best guess is that Verizon is going to use their win of the 700mhz spectrum for this sort of service, augmenting or even replacing their FIOS.

Posted by Ben  on  03/31  at  03:42 PM

I agree with RobRuffo on the quality difference. I’ve always wondered how people can say that an upconverted standard DVD looks just as good…or almost as good as HD. I use to think the problem was with my hardware, now I see that it’s with their’s.

I have a PS3 and a HD-A30 DVD player, both of which do upconverting….and the difference between standard and hi-def DVDs is obvious.

Posted by Simon  on  04/01  at  07:29 AM

I don’t think downloads are going to make a dent for a long time. Apples to Oranges. A 25/50GB download is a daunting task even over broadband. You could probably drive to another country to rent a disc faster than download real, clean HD content.

When people say you can download HD over the internet, they mean heavily compressed or upsampled HD content, usually about the same data size or less than standard DVD.

Posted by mda3333  on  04/01  at  11:02 AM

For what all the Blu-Ray equipment and disks cost now, it’s not worth the money.  Upconversion will win out for 90% of the market.  Most people don’t care about whether they are watching it in HD or not.  The just want to watch the movie.  And not have it cost them $400 for a player and $30 a movie.  Then the ten minute wait for java to #### you off with “loading: screen.

OVERRATED!!!!

Posted by film11  on  04/01  at  12:52 PM

MDA is absolutely right!  And it is not like even those people have no HDF access.  Right now, one can view all three GODFATHER films in HD OnDemand.  Can’t see them on Blu-Ray!  Also, another factor that most seem to ignore when considering that “stellar” 68,000 discs sold is that many of those buyers are people who have HD-DVD and were forced to switch.  So,  if anything, that 68,000 is almost what a combined HD-DVD/BR release would have been…only less!  I’d guess that if both formats were allowed to continue, the number might have been over 100,000 sold.  Sorry, but the industry shot themselves in the foot (for mass adoption? by arbitraily eliminating HD-DVD.

Posted by Peter Smith  on  04/01  at  01:19 PM

I don’t see downloads taking off any time soon.

Either you need to stream it every time you watch it, which becomes a bandwidth problem (at least until high speed bandwidth become ubiquitous and various internet backbones are upgraded to be able to serve all that data) or you have to store it somewhere.  When I think of the headaches I encounter when having to backup my iTunes library whenever I need to re-install an OS or something, and that’s 40 gigs of data or something. Imagine doing that with terabytes of storage. Yes, the the storage is getting cheaper, but it still takes time to copy files back and forth.

Plus I still think most (not all) people want something they can hold in their hands. The collectible aspect of things.

Eventually it’ll happen, but I think we’re talking 10-15 years out.

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