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Samsung Exec: Blu-ray Will Be Gone in 5 Years
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September 03, 2008 | by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)
One Samsung executive says Blu-ray will be wildly popular for the next five years, but will eventually be replaced by something bigger and better.
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Posted by optivity  on  09/03  at  02:10 PM

Samsung can only “hope” Blu-ray will last another 5 years, which is much longer than their ill-fated BD-UP5000 was on the market.

Consumers are familiar with DVD players so BD format is no great leap.

Unless another format comes along to surpass 1080p there is no compelling reason to develop new media or the devices to play it with.

Posted by Jerry  on  09/03  at  02:15 PM

All sounds good and yes I love my Blu-Ray but I can’t agree I still see standard DVD’s being around in 5 years from now.  Maybe not selling as strong but for some collectors picking up a cheap DVD of a movie will be perfectly fine.  I don’t see that technology continuing to move as fast as some of the others unless they start putting everything in 3D or Holograms of some sort.

Posted by outsider  on  09/03  at  03:18 PM

at some point downloadable media will take over discs. theyre not even using the full capacity of blu ray, i dont see a new disc coming out to replace blu ray in five years.

Posted by Joe  on  09/03  at  03:31 PM

Just adding to optivity’s comment, even if a new format is available that takes us beyond 1080p, (which i hear they are working on something possibly names Ultra-Definition), is it likely that all these people spending on average $800-$1500 on a current HD Tv is likely to upgrade that soon ? I have customers who rely on cable converter boxes so they can pick up analog cable channels past 50 on their 20 yr old TV.

Posted by Ted  on  09/03  at  04:20 PM

And the consumer can afford to upgrade yet again in five years.???

Sorry but I don’t see it happening for the mass market….

Posted by the calibrator  on  09/03  at  06:06 PM

I always thought of BD as being the first step to HD and that it would be replaced by something “more capable” for the new world of changing home entertainment.  if you think about it, 1080p is really just the start of HD.  studios have been using higher resolution behind the scenes for film-to-HD transfers on their best films.  Even the HD REC.709 colur gamut is not always being monitored in-house for BDs and while slightly wider than SD REC.601, it’s still not representative of all that is capable on film.  There is some logiic behind having a display xvycc capable right now…although no software in the consumer world is delivering it (nor is any commercial formate capable of it…SuperBD? maybe?)  Even HD cameras are incresing in depth/resolution.  Displays will have to accomodate this technology.

The 1080p display device you puirchased may be the cat’s meow right now and will look stunning after calibration…but it isn’t the be-all and end-all in the quickly changing digital world.  Welcome to the digital lifestyle.

Posted by Soundzilla  on  09/03  at  10:07 PM

Someone take this “executive” and help them find a new job. What an irresponsible, bone-headed, uninformed, irresponsible thing to say for a company manufacturing Blu-ray players. This makes me want to return my Samsung player.

This is a premium format and the best available option for replacing DVD. Remarks like this cast doubt on something that was designed to replace DVD.

Downloadable media will NOT be taking Bu-ray’s place unless people decide they really really like compression on their audio and video. No thanks.

Posted by mike  on  09/03  at  10:52 PM

If tdk did 200 gb bd, and pioneer did 400gb bd.

and

1920 x 1080p = aprox 1 million pixels in a 50 gb bd

and

4096 x 2400 = aprox 9.8 million pixels

9.8 x 50 = 490 gb, then we would need about 500 gb to satisfy that resolution. If blu ray keeps expanding the capability for its capacity, there will be no need to upgrade.

now, will hdmi 3.1yz handle the bandwith of a 500 gb BD

http://www.gizmag.com/pioneer-develops-16-layer-400-gb-optical-disc/9598/

Posted by Jim  on  09/04  at  02:39 AM

‘And the consumer can afford to upgrade yet again in five years.??? “

Most people are not even upgrading now yet alone again in 5 years.

Funny how he said they are backordered. Was that to explain the empty shelves in stores where there SHOULD be Bluray players?

If they had all stuck to the original plan of ONE HD disc format we would have had alot more different titles available now.

As far as Bluray replacing DVD, people forget, Sony did not win anything, all they did is force HD DVD to stop making discs.

. Too bad they can’t force them to stop making DVD, which is the REAL format war. A war according to Samsung, that will never be won by Bluray.

Posted by mike  on  09/04  at  08:31 AM

hey jim, email me you address ... you must be running out of haterade ... I got plenty here to ship you…

Posted by Walker  on  09/04  at  10:29 AM

Calibrator you are spot on. Blu Ray is just a natural progression in the technology cycle. The days of an entrenched format are gone. You won’t see longevity like VHS or DVD in the future. That’s great news for those of us that embrace change and advancement. It’s not good for the “padawans” who think a 300% increase in Blu Ray was some type of landmark event.

Posted by lightningrod  on  09/04  at  12:20 PM

What an Idiot.
The displays go hand in hand with the format resolution now. HD is just about right for most screen size / viewing distance ratios.
Does this moron think we’re all going to be buying new displays, players and media libraries in 5 years?
Or maybe he is thinking of an enhanced BD-live thingy, where each movie comes with 1000 hours of attached crap that nobody would ever watch.
Idiot.

Posted by Joe  on  09/04  at  05:37 PM

No-one (well certainly not me) is saying that Blu-Ray is as far as HD can progress. What we (i) am saying is, such a big push has been made for 1080p resolution TVs now. That when in the next few 3-5 years newer even higher definition TVs are avaialble, mainstream america will have already spent its TV budget on 1080p. Believe it or not, people still expect their TVs to last longer than 3-5 years. So unless all these TVs start falling apart in the next years, its gonna take more than ‘a crisper picture’ to be able to sell it to people who have already invested in their home entertainment.

Posted by Captain Stereo  on  09/04  at  06:57 PM

A genius this guy….“The format will be dead in five years”, followed by “It’s going to be huge. We’re heavily backordered right now.” Well, it won’t be huge with brain surgeons like this running companies that make the players and are supposed to be supporting the format, not sounding its death knell. Nice going.

Posted by Derek  on  09/05  at  12:40 PM

I think what Mr. Griffith was trying to say is, that the physical medium, the Tape the Disc the whatever will not be around much longer.  The shift, as we all know, to on demand content and digital storage is the future.  You can bet Samsung will have a box to deliver that content in the not to distant future.

Posted by the truth  on  09/06  at  01:55 PM

People who think higher res tvs or content are around the corner are out of their minds and should immediately be dismissed as ignorant. 1080p is razor sharp and beautiful on even 100 inch projected images. It will be quite some time before it is necessary to move away from it, when most people don’t even have hdtvs yet.

I find it funny how many people ##### about drm, etc and yet are glorifying digital download as something good. Media companies will make you pay every single time you want to watch something if real media goes away.  To voluntarily give them that kind of power is absolutely, mind numbingly stupid.

Wake up people.

Posted by Xbot  on  09/09  at  04:56 PM

This guy is on crack, Blu-ray is the future today.

Posted by Aaron  on  09/11  at  06:37 PM

I think most of you are putting words in his mouth. He never said that downloads would replace BD, just that it wouldn’t be dominant after about 5 years.

When Toshiba threw in the towel on HD DVD, they announced heavy investment in flash memory. In the computer world it appears that flash memory will replace hard disk drives in the next few years. This is already happening in laptops and as the prices of flash memory drop, it is very conceivable that you will be able to buy your 1080p HD content with full audio resolution on a small memory card. This card will in all likelyhood have full DRM protection and offer everything BD does today and at a cost equal to or less than BD discs today.

Give the guy a break… he may not be as dumb as most of you think. I think it would be nice to have a media that you just plug into your TV or receiver or even a small player similar to an iPod that has HDMI output for your AV receiver and HD display. It would be far less costly and far more reliable than blue laser technology and could easily exceed BD for bandwidth and capacity.

Posted by Bryan  on  09/22  at  04:25 PM

I am still looking for numbers on Blu-Ray adoption.  I see a few more in my local Blockbuster, but not a huge number.  If a lot of people are like me, it looks great and all, but why would I want to buy a Blu-ray if all I have is a 720P plasma and I generally watch DVDs on an upconverter.  Further, I just can’t fathom paying $25 a disc when I can rent from Redbox for $1 per night.  The economy is just too undertain for me to take that kind of a risk right now.  Would like to have one for Christmas, but I would rather wait it out.

Posted by Darrell  on  10/09  at  02:45 PM

It’s all about market share and accessibility.  As technology continues to mature, so will the method of delivery. Everyone doesn’t have the same equipment, nor can everyone drop tons of cash to upgrade every time the latest and greatest devices hit the consumer market.  Blu-Ray media will enjoy being king of the mountain for awhile, just as VHS and DVD once had their spotlight of fame. Currently 1080p is king but 1440p is right around the corner.

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