DVD was also a no brainer.  An obvious improvement in sound and video, no rewinding, no degradation from playing, little noise, no tapes being jammed and a very rapid reduction in price as compared to laser disc and Blu-ray.

There’s no doubt in my mind that this transition will take place. 2012 is sooner than i would have expected, but if it happens that’s great news for HD enthusiasts.

I know there are die-hard HD-DVD holdouts who insist Blu-ray is doomed because downloads will rule the world. Even if it takes longer than 2012, Blu-ray will overtake DVD before streaming bandwidth at homes is fast enough to deliver full 1080p quality into the home. Anyone not buying Blu-ray because they believe the Internet will solve everything is going to be waiting a long, long time.

Blu Ray will never overtake DVD in sales,not in the US or the rest of the world.As long as prices for media and players stay high it will always remain a niche.
Disclosure:I own a BD player.

Arlen, you must be on crack!  No way in hell that’s going to happen.  I’m also a Blu-ray owner (PS3) and only buy movies when they are below $20.  I have continued to buy the occasional DVD despite my desire to purchase only BR.  Why? Because I can’t play BR in on my laptop, in my car, at the hotel, or at the vacation rental.  Nor can I down-rev it to my Touch. 

And that means neither I, nor anybody I know, will buy a family oriented BR movie until we’ve all updated our playback hardware for at least three devices:  car, laptop, portable DVD player.

And of course, by 2012, FIOS or some other fiber/sat service will offer HD at a reasonable rate and service level.  Which means the ‘impulse purchase’ BR market won’t really exist like it does for DVD.

So, I think you’re wrong, but I hope you’re right.

I’m sad to say this but i give this prediction about an equal weighting to the ancient Mayan belief that the world will end in 2012.

Blu-ray will overtake DVD when the price of a BD player is $99 and the movies are selling for $9; then people will have a reason to upgrade.  My first BD player will be a PS3 priced at $199 (Brand new at Wal-Mart or another electronics store).  Price does matter (that’s why the buses and trains are full now).

Hmmm… let me see if I get this… ten blu-ray releases a week, 52 weeks in a year, 5200 releases in a year…  Nope, it don’t add up.  That would be a HUNDRED Blu-Ray releases a week.  And that ain’t happenin’, at least not any time soon.  Once the studios decide to recode everything in HD, though, that steamroller won’t stop.

BD will always cost more than DVD to make.  It’s a whole different process not mentioning the AACS copy protection costs.  The industry is always looking for new ways to sell their content to the same market again and again (VHS, DVD, BD, etc.)  But the reality now is that the market wants entertainment content with ease and convenience and portability.  Quality be damned, i.e., MP3 has become the main public distribution for music, not close to CD quality, let alone high sampling-rate SA and DVD-Audio—both dead formats now.  Why does anyone think that the majority people will spend more HD when all they really want is an interesting story to entertain them for a couple of hours wherever they happen to be?

It’ll be a niche as long as the MSRP of the disc is the same as LDs were…$39.95.

People are tired of double dipping. Stop releasing on DVD and then 6 months down the line, release it on BD!

2012 is four years from now.  Four years might as well be forty years in the consumer electronics industry.  I still think Sony has screwed consumers by contriving an outcome to the HD DVD/Blu-Ray “war”.

I was (and still am) a rabid purchaser of HD DVD’s.  Now that Blu-ray is the only supported HD format, however, I find that I am beginning to lose interest in HD media, due to the fact that none of the current Blu-ray hardware matches the capabilities of even the most basic HD DVD players, and costs have not fallen as Blu-ray supporters predicted.  I am sure the BDA will eventually get their act together, but by the time they do, will anyone care?

Blu-Ray Disc Players and Blu-Ray discs will be the dominant products this holiday season… watch and see. BD players will sell on Black Friday for under $240.00. In a bad economy, consumers gravitate to CE products.

Sure. When my dad was a kid (in the 1950’s), the official class textbook said that by the 1970’s the USPS would send mail overseas via Rockets the USAF was currently developing for them.  Those rockets must be so fast that we can’t even see them!

Blu-ray offers great improvements over SD-DV - beter sound, beter picture, resolution AND color fidelity.  Of course, some people do not care about these things, but I think many do.

I now have a no video rule on my computer, after paying an $85 surcharge on my bill.

HD Internet downloads will never happen in large numbers, especially now that bandwidth is getting expensive.  It must stay expensive, as this will help prevent piracy.  Stupid claims that studios must learn to “adopt a new business model” do not hold up against evidence that “new business” types, like i-Tunes, do not generate money of any significance, and in fact only canibalize DVD/CD sales, and that free downloading is not a business, any more than shoplifting is a new business type that retailers should embrace, and “stop trying to fight”. 

Also, your favotite movies took over a year to write, over a year to cast, thousands of hours to edit.  No one’s favorite movie that changed their life is a youtube amateur clip of a singing cat.  Even if you are a communist, and think everyone should make minimum wage, the sheer number of hours of hard work that are required to attain a high level of perfection means movies will always be expensive to make, if they are to be any good.

Besides, Blu-rays can be gifted - how do you wrap a download?

They’re just playing guessing games again.

The key here is that DVD generates less revenue for the movie & CE industry because noone in their right mind pays top dollar for any release.

Blu-ray on the otherhand is a niche product (it is far too reliant on a game console) selling at a far higher margin (the now incresingly rare sales promotion excepted).

Blu-ray is little more than a cynical ploy to get the movie & consumer electronics corps back to the level of margin they once had when DVD replaced VHS and to take power away from the consumer (this is not some nutty conspiracy theory, it’s true,  for proof go read about the BD+ security they are introducing & the ‘End User Licencing Agreement…...which I bet you didn’t know you made when you bought the disc).

Unfortunately for them not everyone is so obsessed with tech.
People know that while the jump from VHS to DVD was very clear and large the leap from (very cheap) DVD to (very expensive) Blu-ray high def is much less obvious (especially if you count upscaled DVD) on the size of HD TV the bulk of us that have then use (32” - 50”).

The other really big problem Blu-ray have is that too many people simply do not think the difference Blu-ray offers on their 32” - 50” HD TV is worth the relatively enormous additional cost.

Not many people want to go to the other (enormous) expense for the necessary audio kit to make use of the other supposedly great feature it offers either.

Despite what the geeks and enthusiasts would have us believe not everyone really wants a mini-cinema in their living room.

Some of you people are out of your minds. Mike, My Playstation 3 does more than any HD-DVD player ever did…get over it. Go ahead and lose interest in HD media. That “I didn’t get my way so I’m just not going to play at all” thing serves no purpose. You and those who want HD media to enrich our lives both lose.

As long as ignorant people continue to say that upscaled DVD looks as good as Blu-ray, prices will remain high so you’re shooting yourselves and the rest of us in the foot with comments like “...the leap from (very cheap) DVD to (very expensive) Blu-ray high def is much less obvious (especially if you count upscaled DVD…”  PUHLEASE stop the FUD!

Upscaled DVD doesn’t hold a match to 1080p Blu-ray, period. Unless you have eye trouble or are just trying to mislead people for some agenda, you’re not likely to think they are equivalent.

Think Blu-ray players are expensive? Anyone want to buy one of the three Laserdisc players I have? I paid $900 for one of them. How about my $1200 S-VHS deck? Any takers? I thought not. $300 for a 1080p media player is a steal. Stop whining and start enjoying full HD or get out of the way.

I said it before and I’ll say it again, “Price does matter!”  I paid $300 for my PS2 when it first came out (back then a Panasonic or Sony DVD player were going for $250).  I’ll buy a blu-ray when the PS3 is $199.  Blu-ray is cool right now if you have money to burn; but for the rest of us, we’ll keep watching for price (value).

Price Man,
You took the words right out of my mouth.  I said I’d buy a BR player once it reaches $125 and that includes tax.

“Blu-ray will overtake DVD when the price of a BD player is $99 and the movies are selling for $9; then people will have a reason to upgrade.  My first BD player will be a PS3 priced at $199 (Brand new at Wal-Mart or another electronics store).  Price does matter (that’s why the buses and trains are full now). “

I discs would have to cost $10 but at this point I really don’t even like paying $10 for DVDs unless it’s a box set and I’m using a birthday or xmas gift card.  Price determines whether I buy a BR player and BR discs.  Until then, it’s dvd for me!

Thanks G.G. - You’re a doll!  It appears that everyone has money to burn - or pretends to have money to burn.  In the world of electronics, “Price is King!”

Man have we ever become a nation of cheapskate, bottom-feeding bargain-hunters.

The “Price” crowd lords over the “quality” crowd. It’s the watering down of things to their least possible value.

This is why Wal-mart is so successful. This is why we have to assemble our pressboard furniture ourselves instead of having furniture that is both conversation piece and utilitarian. This is why we have to wait ten years for consumers to adopt high definition. This is why I can’t just bring a Blu-ray disc to my iin-law’s place - because they’d rather watch DVD than throw one less party this summer in exchange for a 1080p source for their HDTV. “I want my 2 million pixel movie player for $99 or I’m going home and not playing at all!! Waaaa!” Babies. Buck up.

You get what you pay for. Enjoy that 480i source material folks. If these comments are any indicator, it looks like DVD is here to stay for a while. Might as well buy an EDTV instead of HDTV if you’re not going to feed it what it’s asking for.Of course, misery loves company and all the whiners about prices have ample misinformation that they can find online to justify their disinterest in Blu-ray. I see no difference between people who believe upscaled DVD is just as good as Blu-ray and those who think a Ferarri is no different than a Hyundai. ignorance is bliss indeed. They should consider giving up video altogether so the rest of us can move ahead. Prioritize, people.

And before you get all “what an elitist” on me, I make a modest income well below six figures and I’m by no means rich. I just love home theater and I think any significant jump in video and audio that looks and sounds this good is worth saving $300 to buy a player and $20 a movie. Hell I spend more than $20 to take my wife to see a movie in a theater, and I can’t even hit pause for a bio-break. You don’t like paying $10 for a DVD? Jeez! Sorry to sound so harsh but have you thought about a new hobby like bird watching? One pair of binoculars and you’re all set. You can even get them for less than $99.

Bird watching in 1080p 7.1 Now that’s a hobby